Best Picture – Drama

1. Spotlight
2. Carol
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Room
5. The Revenant

It seems that Spotlight is the front-runner this season, though in my eyes, it’s a weak one. It’s possible that any of the nominees could overtake Spotlight for the win, in spite of the critical success it’s received. 

Best Picture – Comedy or Musical 

1. The Big Short
2. The Martian
3. Joy
4. Trainwreck
5. Spy

I think it’s going to be a close race between The Martian and The Big Short but The Big Short has way too much buzz right now, plus like Spotlight, it has the “importance” factor going for it as well. 

Best Director

1. Todd Haynes, Carol 
2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Any of the top three have a realistic shot of winning, though I predict a Best Picture/ Best Director split since it appears that they’ve become a little more common in recent years, though they’re rare. It doesn’t seem to be that Carol is going to go home empty-handed since it the Golden Globes seemed to love it. This may be their way of rewarding it with a big prize.   

Best Actor – Drama

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Will Smith, Concussion

It appears to be Leonardo’s year and I think he’s going to win probably every televised award for his performance in The Revenant. His narrative seems to hard to overcome, though Bryan Cranston has a lot of goodwill from Breaking Bad, so he’s a possible spoiler, but I doubt it. 

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical 

1. Steve Carell, The Big Short
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Matt Damon, The Martian
4. Danny Collins, Al Pacino
5. Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear

I think it’s a three-way race between Steve Carrell, Christian Bale and Matt Damon for the Globe this year. Steve Carrell and Christian Bale benefit from being in the more “important”, and likely winner, of this category, but what hurts their chances, is that it’s more of an ensemble-led movie rather than having the movie rest on either of their shoulders. Matt Damon, on the other hand, while a lot of the movie rests on his shoulders, he just coasts on his charisma and his part didn’t really seem to take a whole lot of skill or transformation, unlike Bale or Carell.  

Best Actress – Drama

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Saorise Ronan, Brooklyn
5. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

It appears to me that this race is between Brie Larson and Rooney Mara, with Brie Larson the likely winner here. Larson’s film has the support and her character isn’t quite as internal as Mara’s. I doubt Ronan’s chances in spite of the many critics awards she’s reaped this season, since the only nomination for her film was her performance. Cate already has three Golden Globes, and The Danish Girl doesn’t have much support either, plus Vikander may be rewarded in another category. 

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical 

1. Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
4. Maggie Smith, The Lady in The Van
5. Melissa McCarthy, Spy

A lot of people are predicting Jennifer Lawrence, but she already has two Golden Globes, Joy has underperformed with critics, and I’m getting a feeling that there is a bit of “Jennifer Lawrence-fatigue”.  Meanwhile, Amy Schumer has had a stellar year between her television show, and with Trainwreck being a big success, critically and at the box-office, I have a feeling that she may prevail in this category. 

Best Supporting Actor 

1. Mark Rylance, Bridge Of Spies
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
4. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
5. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

I feel as though it’s a close race between Mark Rylance and Idris Elba, with either of them having a possibility of taking it. The other three, I don’t think have a chance. 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
5. Jane Fonda, Youth

I think it’s a strong possibility that Vikander wins for Ex-Machina here to make up for her assured loss in lead, though Jennifer Jason Leigh has a chance, I don’t think her role is a winner, especially with the recent criticism of the role.  The rest, like Best Supporting Actor, the nomination is their reward. 

Best Screenplay

1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. Room
4. Steve Jobs
5. The Hateful Eight

I think this category is between Spotlight and The Big Short, with Spotlight having a little bit of an edge, since it’s mostly likely the winner in Best Picture – Drama. Room has the potential to be a spoiler, though I doubt it.