Best Picture

1. Three Billboards…
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Get Out
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post

This is going to be an interesting race though I think Three Billboards… is the likeliest to come out of this one with the big award, with The Shape of Water putting up a good fight. The Shape of Water ended up taking the PGA (a telling precursor) and the BFCA for Best Picture, but it appears that Three Billboards… has the most momentum with it winning Best Picture at both the Golden Globes, and BAFTA, and the Best Ensemble award at SAG.  Though with the current ballot system, and Three Billboards…’s director snub, The Shape of Water or a left field choice (who would’ve thought Moonlight stood a chance against La La Land last year?) could ultimately end up the winner.

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro,  The Shape of Water

2.  Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

3.  Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

4. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out

I could see where someone would make a case for Paul Thomas Anderson or Greta Gerwig, but I think del Toro has this in the bag. He’s won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the DGA award for The Shape of Water; I don’t see anyone else coming close.

Best Actor

1.  Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2.  Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3.  Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
4.  Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5.  Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel, Esq

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards…
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I ,Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards…
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards…
5. Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Usually, I’d pick a winner and then explain my reasoning underneath their particular category. In this particular race however, I’d say each winner in all four acting categories is set in stone. Each of them has won BFCA, the Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA. Upsets have happened previously in the supporting category. I could see where, due to the controversial nature of Sam Rockwell’s character, Williem Dafoe winds up winning the award, or I, Tonya’s under-performance (it did miss Best Picture when it was widely predicted to snag a spot) and the overall strength of either Lady Bird or Phantom Thread, ends with Laurie Metcalf or Lesley Manville managing to snag an Oscar, but in all honesty, I doubt there will be any upsets. The four in bold are our likely winners.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards…
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

Since I’m predicting Three Billboards… to win Best Picture, I think it’s likely going to win original screenplay, but if it loses (and it easily could), I think that maybe an indicator that we’re in for a Best Picture upset. Any of the top four listed has a realistic shot of winning the award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly’s Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

This category is a wasteland with only one likely winner.