- La La Land
- Manchester By The Sea
- Hidden Figures
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
I think La La Land is going to win this by a considerable margin. The buzz is too great for any of the other movies to put up a fight here. It’s practically a done deal.
- Damien Chazelle – La La Land
- Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By The Sea
- Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
- Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Barring some kind of upset of that’s unheard of in the history the Academy, Damien Chazelle has this pretty easily.
- Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea
- Denzel Washington – Fences
- Ryan Gosling – La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
- Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
This is between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington and I think Casey is going to win out by a very small margin. Casey has major critics awards along with BFCA, a Golden Globe and BAFTA on his side but Denzel has SAG. It may not sound like much, but it’s a major award. Denzel had never been awarded a SAG in his career, that along with his performance in Fences, and possibly the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, helped him pull off a win among SAG voters. It may not work with the Academy, but he certainly has a decent shot.
- Emma Stone – La La Land
- Isabelle Huppert – Elle
- Natalie Portman – Jackie
- Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
- Ruth Negga – Loving
Emma Stone has the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), the SAG and the BAFTA and a Best Picture winner on her side. That’s an unstoppable combination of factors, in my honest opinion, couple that with the fact that this category has a history of awarding the young, new “it” girl (Gwyenth Paltrow, Jennifer Lawrence) and it’s a pretty easy category to predict. Though, it’s possible, that The Academy could switch gears, and give Isabelle Huppert a win in this category. She’s considered somewhat of a legend in Europe, she’s campaigning like crazy in the United States and aboard, so it’s possible (though unlikely) that there’s an upset in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
- Dev Patel – Lion
- Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
- Lucas Hedges – Manchester By The Sea
- Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
This is an odd category. The Golden Globe winner wasn’t nominated, Dev Patel won BAFTA and Mahershala Ali won SAG and BFCA. I would say Mahershala Ali is probably the likely winner here, but who knows. Supporting Categories occasionally have crazy upsets.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Viola Davis – Fences
- Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea
- Naomie Harris – Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman – Lion
- Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Viola Davis is winning this one. Everyone else can stay home.