BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester By The Sea
4. Hidden Figures
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Arrival
7. Lion
8. Fences
9. Hell or High Water

I think La La Land is going to win this by a considerable margin. The buzz is too great for any of the other movies to put up a fight here. It’s practically a done deal. 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins  – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By The Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
5. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Barring some kind of upset of that’s unheard of in the history the Academy,  Damien Chazelle has this pretty easily. 

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

This is between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington and I think Casey is going to win out by a very small margin. Casey has major critics awards along with  BFCA,  a Golden Globe and BAFTA on his side but Denzel has SAG. It may not sound like much, but it’s a major award. Denzel had never been awarded a SAG in his career, that along with his performance in Fences, and possibly the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, helped him pull off a win among SAG voters. It may not work with the Academy, but he certainly has a decent shot. 

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
3. Natalie Portman – Jackie
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

Emma Stone has the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), the SAG and the BAFTA and a Best Picture winner on her side. That’s an unstoppable combination of factors, in my honest opinion, couple that with the fact that this category has a history of awarding the young, new “it” girl (Gwyenth Paltrow, Jennifer Lawrence) and it’s a pretty easy category to predict. Though, it’s possible, that The Academy could switch gears, and give Isabelle Huppert a win in this category. She’s considered somewhat of a legend in Europe, she’s campaigning like crazy in the United States and aboard, so it’s possible (though unlikely) that there’s an upset in this category. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Dev Patel – Lion
3. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
4. Lucas Hedges – Manchester By The Sea
5. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

This is an odd category. The Golden Globe winner wasn’t nominated, Dev Patel won BAFTA and Mahershala Ali won SAG and BFCA. I would say Mahershala Ali is probably the likely winner here, but who knows. Supporting Categories occasionally have crazy upsets. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea
3. Naomie Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Viola Davis is winning this one. Everyone else can stay home.