September Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

  1. Carol
  2. Joy
  3. The Revenant
  4. Bridge Of Spies
  5. Steve Jobs
  6. The Danish Girl
  7. Youth
  8. The Hateful Eight
  9. Suffragette

Carol has sustained it’s buzz as a must-see prestige project since it premiered at Cannes Film Festival this past May, one just has to look at the level of raves it’s receiving, to see that it’s becoming quite the juggernaut, and is sure to receive, at the very least, a slew of nominations. However, if Joy also reaps critical praise at the level I’m seeing for Carol,  and O. Russell is quickly being considered ‘overdue’, it could overtake Carol, as could The Revenant, though for now, considering the importance of the topic of the film, and the fact that many critics are considering it a masterpiece, is why I’m putting Carol as my win.

Best Director

  1. Todd Haynes, Carol
  2. David O. Russell, Joy
  3. Steven Spielberg, Bridge Of Spies
  4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  5. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

I think this category is going to come down to O. Russell versus Haynes. Haynes has the more important, and probably technically better film, while O. Russell will be considered by many within The Academy as overdue with a very good film. The rest have won before, some more than once. 

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  4. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  5. Michael Caine, Youth

DiCaprio, by many, is widely seen as overdue for an Oscar. He has five nomination to his credit,  four for acting and one for producing, and has consistently been doing good-to-great work for many, many years. Though, for some, Johnny Depp might be considered overdue, and he definitely might have the showier role, but I think The Revenant will have more support throughout the industry, as will DiCaprio. Redmayne and Fassbender have a decent shot, Redmayne with the “importance” factor driving him, along with playing a real person, and Fassbender playing a real person in what I’ve read is a very strong script. Though in the end, I think it’s too early for Redmayne to win another and Fassbender, in the trailer, appears to be underplaying it a bit and the accent at times seems a bit off. Michael Caine will take the veteran slot, but I don’t feel the last two stand as much of a chance as the first three do. 

Best Actress

  1. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  3. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  4. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
  5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

This category is a strong one, there could be quite a few other nominees that fill out the last two slots  and Vikander could go still go Supporting, but I think she will follow in Felicity Jones’ footsteps and go lead, especially with what appears to be quite a showy turn as the wife of someone transitioning. Carey Mulligan is a previous nominee, and about at the right age to win, but early word is that her movie isn’t as good as it should be, however that doesn’t mean that the film won’t have it’s supporters. Jennifer Lawrence, as we all know, has won before in a David O. Russell film, along with only being twenty-five, will, I think, hurt her chances of winning another in lead so soon.  It’s true, she has nearly won again before, but I just think that this category is too strong for someone so young, in a movie that might have a similar performance to the one that she won previously for, to win again. It’s a possibility though, especially with someone so popular in what is probably going to be a top-tier Best Picture contender.  

One prediction that I’m sort of iffy on, is Charlotte Rampling. She’s a respected veteran, who has been working for many, many years throughout the industry but I hear that her film is quite understated and her performance is very subtle, yet devastating. The company distributing the film is Sundance Selects, a small company that isn’t known for it’s  campaigning abilities. Though if the critics support her, and the film, and the buzz is sustained throughout award season, it’s possible that she could end up with a win.

Now you may be surprised with the fact that I’ve predicted Cate Blanchett as  the winner, considering what I had to say about Jennifer Lawrence and her recent winner status, but Cate has been in the industry for years and is widely considered to be the greatest actress of her generation, and one of the greatest actresses of all-time in a movie about a timely subject, that’s being raved, one that I predict will win Best Picture…her performance is being touted as better than her previous win (Blue Jasmine) by many critics, at least one calling it a career-best performance in a career with a number of performances that could’ve won in their respective years. So I think Cate will be able to overcome the nay-sayers that say it’s too soon to win a third, with a performance that I believe will be considered undeniable, in a movie that I believe will be a Best Picture winner. That status alone has swept in lesser Actresses to victory (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby). 

In all honesty, any of these five ladies could make a play for the win, though.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Idris Elba, Beast Of No Nation
  2. Robert De Niro, Joy
  3. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  4. Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful Eight
  5. Harvey Keitel, Youth

This category, like Best Actor, is sort of weak this year. The first three, possibly four, have definite possibilities of winning. Elba in a strong, unflinching performance, De Niro in a top-tier Best Picture contender with what I hear is a strong, showy role, plus he has the veteran status that could propel him to a win, Tom Hardy who has been on an excellent roll and has been gathering the respect of critics and fellow actors, who has also had the rare feat of gaining critical raves and having Box Office success with this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road. There’s also Samuel L. Jackson and Harvey Keitel who I feel less sure about, but it seems highly probable they’ll get swept in with a little support.  

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Rooney Mara, Carol
  2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  3. Diane Ladd, Joy
  4. Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
  5.  Ellen Page, Freeheld

Unless Vikander makes a play for supporting, I feel that Rooney Mara has this category looked up. She’s an up-and-comer with a previous nomination to her credit, she has the prestigious Cannes Best Actress Award for this role as well, so this role in Carol seems as if it’s going to be her big break. There are potential spoilers such as Kate Winslet or Diane Ladd, but I don’t see either of them as being threats since Kate already has one and word is that Diane Ladd’s role isn’t large enough, at least according to those who have read the script. Helena and Ellen, I feel, the nomination will be their reward. 

Best Original Screenplay

  1. David O. Russell, Joy
  2. Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Cohen, Bridge of Spies
  3. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
  4. Palao Sorrentino, Youth
  5. Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

This is a weak year for original screenplay and I feel that they will reward David O. Russell in this category, the rest don’t seem to be “winners”. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1.  Phyllis Nagy, Carol
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. Lucinda Coxon, The Danish Girl
  4. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
  5. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation

This category is substantially stronger than original screenplay, and I feel that with Carol’s narrative, and the fact that Phyllis has been working to get this film made for years, along with the strength of the script will propel her to victory. 

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8 comments

    • It’s a strong year for both categories, and from what I’ve heard about the script, her character just yells obscenities and racial slurs…granted I think it’s an early version of the script, but no, not predicting her. I think if she hasn’t gotten a nomination this far in her career, she’s unlikely to get one, but who knows? It’s possible.

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  1. I think Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight and Michael Keaton for Spotlight will be strong Supporting Actor contenders. SLJ seems like he’s just overacting in The Hateful Eight trailer.

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  2. I totally don’t agree with Leo. I saw black Mass and depps performance made me literally scared of him. He’s intense but on the family scenes, he totally turns it. Leo (I used to obsess during titanic) just seems like clooney. Hollywood’s golden boy that just needs to go away for a while. I do still love him and depp in what’s eating Gilbert grape. I sometimes feel he’s a one trick pony.

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    • I thought Depp was brilliant as well but I just don’t see the movie itself having the support like Leo’s movie will, plus it’s been released in mid-September, typically, films that win Oscars are released Oct through Dec to be fresh in voters minds. It will have its fans no doubt, but I don’t think he’s winning :/.

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